In this article, we would like to present the weekly technical forecast targeting the prospects of major financial assets during the period from Feb 12 to Feb 16.
As we have forecasted, the Euro – Greenback has spent a week plunging sharply because bulls’ strength has been weaker. On Wednesday, prices pierced into the EMA 20 – SMA 50 range but then showed signs of rallying, suggesting that we may see a retest of the 20-day EMA for the foreseeable future. A penetration back above the EMA 20 paves the way for a re-challenge of the Jan 25 peak at 1.25350. Alternatively, given a further decline, the 38.2% Fib of 1.21616 will likely be confronted, followed by the 50-day SMA.
The British Pound – Greenback also recorded a pessimistic week with the 20-day EMA line broken to the downside. Prices have been consolidating around that line for days and headed lower finally, indicating that bears are prevailing over bulls. The nearest support threshold is found at the 50-day SMA, with a close below that on a daily closing basis targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci of 1.35146. Otherwise, the currency pair could test back the EMA (20).
This week witnessed the Greenback – Japanese Yen exchange rechallenge the Jan 26 base at 108.289 but unsuccessfully break below. Friday’s action exposed that bullish momentum has been entering the game, opening the door for a higher correction next week. The nearest resistance barrier is ascertained at the 20-day EMA, with a turn above that exposing the SMA (50). Alternatively, should the currency pair disrupt below 108.289, a further fall to confront the Sept 8 nadir at 107.316 is entirely possible.
USD/CAD marked a very positive week trading higher with all the resistance obstacles (the 1.23645 support-turned-resistance, EMA 20, SMA 50, and the 1.25815 threshold) submitted. However, Friday saw signs of profit taking after the resistance threshold at 1.26752 was approached, making a shooting-star candlestick form. That indicates bulls will still dominate the game next week, but bears may enter at last. The nearest stable resistance hurdle is defined at 1.26752. Alternatively, a daily breach below the SMA 50 will make the EMA 20 on the radar.
The Australian Dollar – Greenback this week recorded a negative affair with the EMA 20 – SMA 50 zone nicely penetrated. Bears remained highly aggressive, suggesting that we may continue to see a further bearish movement in the near future. The nearest substantial support hurdle is determined around 0.76586. Alternatively, a close above the SMA 50 line on a daily closing basis paves the way for a higher rally to test back the EMA 20.
The New Zealand Dollar – Greenback also moved lower this week, trading into the EMA 20 – SMA 50 territory. Nevertheless, Friday’s action showed that bulls have come into the fray, signaling that a rally may appear for the foreseeable future. A daily penetration above the 20-day EMA opens up the path towards the Jan 24 high at 0.74313. Alternatively, a break below the 50-day SMA will target the 50% Fib of 0.71049.