This week saw EUR/USD consolidate around the Aug 17 nadir of 1.16613. This consolidation is likely to indicate a potential bearish movement in the near future since EUR/USD’s risk trend now turned into a mid-term downtrend. The nearest support obstacle is found at 1.14470 (June 29 swing top), with a daily break below that opening the door for a further decline to the next barrier at 1.12968 (June 14 high). Alternatively, the EMA (20) – SMA (50) zone will likely be challenged given prices turning back above the 1.16613 level.
GBP/USD continued to struggle this week without making any clear indication. During the week, prices tried to break the Aug 3 high of 1.32670 to the topside but remained unsuccessful, leading to a thick-body bearish candlestick formed on Thursday. A penetration below the 2-month base at 1.30286 on a daily closing basis will pave the way for a confrontation of the Aug 24 low at 1.27769. Otherwise, the 16-month peak at 1.36516 could possibly be challenged if the 1.32670 level is pierced to the upside.
With the signs showing that buyers and sellers were largely in agreement, USD/JPY this week remained below the 7-month high of 114.487. Despite prices rebounding from the EMA (20), Friday’s development showed that the current bullish momentum was getting weaker, suggesting that a reversal to retest the EMA (20) – SMA (50) support area is entirely possible next week. Prices will head straight to the Oct 16 low of 111.638 if the SMA (50) is broken below. On the contrary, the 61.8% Fib Expansion at 115.424 remains on the radar once the currency pair turns above the 114.487 hurdle.
After reaching the new 2-month peak at 1.29151, the Greenback- Loonie saw a strong selling momentum pushing prices back below the Aug 15 swing top at 1.27768. Besides, USD/CAD’s RSI crossed back below 70, signaling for a possible retest of the Aug 31 high at 1.26623 in the near future. The next support obstacle is found at the SMA (50) given a close below the 1.26623 level. Alternatively, prices may test back the 1.29151 peak if the 1.27768 support-turned-resistance is turned above.
AUD/USD’s downtrend paused this week with a small consolidation formed. However, Friday witnessed a bearish candlestick which suggested for a potential resumption of the bearish trend in the near future. Given the steadfast support around 0.76311 penetrated, prices will likely trade lower to the May 23 barrier at 0.75167. Otherwise, a daily breach above the 0.77126 – 0.77321 zone will expose the EMA (20) – SMA (50) resistance area.
NZD/USD has spent a week rallying after the bounce from the 16-month nadir of 0.68182 last week. Currently, the bearish momentum still prevails but have been weaker due to the RSI line successfully escaping the overbought territory, hinting that the rally may extend. A push into the EMA (20) – SMA (50) resistance zone will trigger a potential confrontation of the 0.70530 hurdle (Oct 9 low). Alternatively, the 0.68182 level will likely be tested back given prices trading lower.