EUR/USD had another week struggling in range. On Wednesday, prices fell into the EMA (20) – SMA (50) support area but then escaped back to the upside, suggesting that we may witness a retest of the 1.20937 level (32-month peak, 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion). A daily turn above that level may pave the way for a higher advance to the 100.0% Fib of 1.22604. Alternatively, the next support defined at 1.16613 will likely be on the radar if the currency pair breaks below the current range’s bottom around 1.18566.
This week saw the GBP/USD pair consolidate after last week’s surge. The RSI line on Friday successfully crossed back below the overbought territory, signaling a lower retracement to challenge the support zone found around 1.33183 (EMA (20), 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement) given prices breaking through the 23.6% Fib of 1.34465. On the contrary, a close above the 14-month high at 1.36516 is likely to trigger a further climb to the next substantial resistance level at 1.38460.
There was another positive week for the US dollar – Japanese Yen which has hit the new 2-month high at 112.706 on Thursday. The rally now seems to turn into a short-term bullish trend, implying that we could possibly see prices trade higher to the 6-month peak of 114.487 in case the 112.706 level was struck through. Otherwise, USD/JPY may retreat back to the EMA (20) – SMA (50) support area.
Exactly as we had predicted before, USD/CAD’s rally has been extending. Prices this week moved into the 1.23082 – 1.24584 resistance area (EMA (20), SMA (50)), indicating a further rise to retest the last swing top at 1.26623 given prices breaking the 1.24584 level to the upside. Alternatively, the currency pair may fall back to challenge the solid support level of 1.20613 (the 32-month low) once the EMA (20) line is broken below.
Unsuccessfully approaching the 31-month high at 0.81221 again, the Aussie – Greenback has reversed and struck below the 0.79518 – 0.79790 support zone (EMA (20), SMA (50)) on Thursday, followed by a weak rally on Friday. Hence, prices now are highly likely to trade lower to the nearest support obstacle of 0.78068 (the 2-month low) next week. Nevertheless, a turn above the EMA (20) line on a daily closing basis will possibly register for a retest of the 0.80641 – 0.81221 resistance area.
NZD/USD surged this week but finally couldn’t close above the 50.0% Fibonacci Retracement of 0.73427, forming a long-wick candlestick on Wednesday. However, on this Friday, the currency pair rebounded from the 0.72733 – 0.72932 support zone (EMA (20), 32.8% Fib) and pushed higher with relatively strong bullish momentum to test back the 50.0% Fib, hinting that prices will likely break this level to the top-side during the period from Sept 25 to Sept 29. The nearest resistance is identified at 0.73940 (the 61.8% Fib) once the barrier at 0.73427 is pierced. Otherwise, the 23.6% Fib at 0.72308 could possibly be reached given a daily turn below the 0.72733 – 0.72932 area mentioned above.