Most of the cryptocurrencies kept declining last week, as it’s been widely anticipated. The only exception was TRON which managed to gain 13% in the last 7 days despite all of the crypto markets in red. Among losers, Bitcoin Cash (-9.8%) and Etherium (-8.5%) were hit the hardest, while Stellar, Bitcoin SV and Cardano lost the ground completely, charting double-digits losses. The leader - VBitcoin - suffered a moderate loss of almost 4%, while EOS, Tether and Litecoin were trying to consolidate losses, fighting with the bearish selling pressure. There was no much of changes in the scope of market cap and trading volume. Volatility did not spike too much as well, so the trading week was comparatively stable with constant sliding of the prices of major coins. The technical outlook remains negative in the medium- and short-term perspective, several analysts predict a bearish breakout. However, we need to have a closer look at separate cryptocurrencies before making any conclusion.
Below is the same chart we showed last week. The most interesting part of it is that there’s no need to add any indicator, the overall technical picture is clear and obvious. The only difference is that we enlarged the scale just to show every fluctuation throughout the past week on the one-hour timeframe. BTC/USD did not break the bottom line of the descending channel yet. It’s been consolidation around that line on Monday and Tuesday, bouncing slightly higher to $3600 on average. The largest bullish achievement was the whipsaw on Saturday but even that buying pressure did not reach the horizontal blue line that we showed previously. The weekly highest price is $3659.0 and that points to bullish weakness. After the failed test of resistance, Bitcoin dropped back down to the descending support line of the channel, as it could be easily forecasted. If hourly close price appeared below that line, then we would see BTC/USD losing the ground completely. The only medium-term support is $3200.0 round figure, and it’s just a question of time to get there, as the technical sentiment remains totally bearish.
The sideways consolidation range, which was dominating throughout the whole trading week, has been breached on the downside. Our short-term target has been achieved and we gladly took profits from the obvious bearish price action. What’s next? There is intermediate support around $102.50 for Etherium, and if breached, the round figure of $100.0 would be the last defensive line for the bulls. The sequence of lower lows and lower highs underlined the bearish sentiment for ETH/USD. The bottom of that large-scale formation is placed at $83.81, however, we do not think the price would get there so quickly. We would consider selling Etherium on upside whipsaws, controlling comparatively tight and short-term profits as not much of the volatility are expected so far.
Ripple is in danger zone. Although it’s been sliding slowly compared to other coins, technically speaking, XRP/USD is approaching the bottom of a long-term descending triangle which could lead to a bearish breakthrough. The current price is at $0.30000 at the time of writing this outlook, while the crucial technical support is placed at $0.28553. If that support was breached, then the whole triangle would work out with a huge distance to go before any consolidation. Intraday oscillators, both Williams and RSI are completely oversold, pointing to the strength of bearish momentum and continuous selling pressure. A healthy bullish retracement is needed to continue the downtrend though. And to reload intraday indicators. But all of the upper attempts should be considered as another chance to renew short positions for XRP/USD.
Litecoin was one of the rare bright areas in the crypto market. LTC/USD stayed in the sideways consolidation range without any significant losses, generally. The thing is that there is no lower low yet and the local bottom of $30.50 holds bears from further achievements. Ichimoku Cloud trend indicator shows that Litecoin is in uncertainty zone on the daily timeframe, as the current price still did not get out of the span. Ichimoku Cloud did not perform a second bullish cross yet and there is still a chance to complete the bullish reversal pattern. In order to do that, Litecoin should break through the resistance of $37.27, at least. That does not seem likely as the selling pressure remains tight. Anyway, we would stay out of this coin, having a wait-and-see position. Selling is too late and buying is too early. Neutral.
TRON managed to chart a bullish breakthrough on the daily timeframe. Although it pulled back a bit, the upside risk is still very likely. The sideways range is not in play anymore, as the upper horizontal static resistance did not hold daily close price. The recent bearish price action is just a healthy retracement and the current price is still above Ichimoku Cloud’s conversion line, which works as the nearest support. Monday’s low of $0.026822 was attractive to renew long positions or add more volume, but even now it’s not too late to enter the market. The Ichimoku span is totally bullish, both lines are above the cloud, so the continuation is more likely with a target of recent whipsaw at $0.03585. The buy-and-hold trading strategy is still preferable.