Weekly Technical Forecast (Aug 14th – Aug 18th)

EUR/USD: Neutral

EUR/USD started the week moving lower, intending to test back the EMA (20) support line. Combined with the current RSI performance which turned above the 70 level in July but then crossed back below it, a consolidation is highly likely to develop in short-term as we forecasted. The nearest support zone is found at 1.16830 - 1.17360 (EMA (20), swing point resistance-turned-support), while the resistance level is the new 2-year high at 1.19092 which was reached last week.


GBP/USD: Neutral

Heading into last week, GBPUSD was struggling inside the EMA (20) and SMA (50) area (1.29653 - 1.30260). Yesterday, prices traded lower but still couldn’t break down the SMA (50) line. The nearest support spotted at 1.28104 seems a sustainable basis if prices cross below the current stuck moving average zone. Alternatively, a turn above the EMA (20) line at 1.30260 may pave the way for a test of the short-term resistance at 1.31246.

USD/JPY: Bullish

USDJPY struck through the significant trend-line support at 109.47 on Thursday last week. However, the currency pair found itself strongly rally yesterday and quickly crack the 109.50 - 109.60 area which had became a resistance zone before. Prices now probably target the EMA (20) line at 110.387. A turn above this level will lead to a further rise to the lastest swing point support-turned-resistance at 110.938. Otherwise, the support level is again found at the 109.50 – 109.60 zone.


USD/CAD: Bullish

This Monday saw USDCAD continue to move up in the direction of the developing reversal beginning from July 30th. Prices now are likely to reach to the resistance area between the SMA (50) line and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (1.27934 – 1.28451). A close above this zone may trigger another rise to challenge the further hurdle spotted at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.29807. Alternatively, USDCAD may retest the 1.26611 – 1.26805 support zone (SMA (20), 23.6% Fib).


AUD/USD: Bearish

AUDUSD was down at the beginning of the week, suggesting a lower dip to reach the SMA (50) support line at 0.77848. The retracement which has been developing since July 27th of this currency pair is now getting more and more overextended, hinting a possible reversal in near-term. A break below the solid SMA (50) support at 0.77848 will clear the way for another dip down to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.77176. Otherwise, prices may consolidate inside the EMA (20) and SMA (50) area.


NZD/USD: Bearish

The short-term reversal has been confirmed when prices broke through both the EMA (20) and SMA (50) support lines to the downside. NZDUSD now weakly moves around, signaling that a small consolidation is likely to form before the currency pair probably continues to go down to the first stable obstacle at 0.72017. Alternatively, prices may retest the support-turned-resistance level at 0.73420.


XAU/USD: Neutral

Gold prices fell on this Monday and just hit the solid support zone at 1271.18 - 1273.935. XAU/USD now is likely to bounce from this area and remain above, suggesting a rise back to the 4-week top found at 1291.733 in the near future. However, a break below this support area on a daily closing basis may register for a lower move to reach the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1258.467.

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