The fire of Trade War between America and China has been spreading to other economies around the world and will potentially leave some serious damages. This article will present our weekly trading forecast for the period from Jul 08 to Jul 14, targeting the prospect of major financial assets.
Monday – 07/09/2018
The new week starts first with the speeches of governors in Japan and Europe. From the Land of the Rising Sun, at 01:30 GMT, Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kuroda will deliver his speech at the BOJ quarterly branch manager's meeting, in Tokyo. At 14:00 GMT and two hours then, the European Central Bank (ECB) Governor Draghi will have two continuous speeches due to testify about the monetary policy and the European Systemic Risk Board before the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee in Brussels.
Tuesday – 07/10/2018
The U.K will take the stage on Tuesday with the important release of GDP m/m at 09:30 GMT. Being the first release of UK GDP on a monthly basis, this is the May’s release and there will also be data for previous months. This is the first time they publish a monthly GDP index, then the reaction from traders and investors may be relatively strong. At the same time, the June’s Manufacturing Production will also be made public with the forecast at 1.0%, which is considerably higher than the May’s -1.4%.
Wednesday - 07/11/2018
At the beginning of the day, at 08:00 GMT, the ECB Governor Draghi will speak to deliver opening remarks at the ECB Statistics Conference, in Frankfurt. There is no obvious sign showing that his speech will have any mention of the near future policy on monetary. In the North of America, at 15:00 GMT, the Bank of Canada (BOC) will have a series of significant releases, including BOC Monetary Policy Report, Rate Statement, and most importantly, the Overnight Rate. Traders are having their own prediction with a 67% chance for a rate hike, which is slightly lower from nearly 80% earlier in June. The experts forecast the rate will be brought to 1.5%, posting an increase of 20% from last month’s. All the releases will be concluded by a press conference at 16:15 GMT. The high likelihood for a rate hike to happen may considerably take the value of the Loonie to a new level, as well as the exchange rate between the Loonie and the Greenback in such a condition.
At 16:35 GMT in England, the Bank of England (BOE) will speak about the global financial crisis at the National Bureau of Economic Research conference, in Boston. Should any hawkish implications as to monetary policy be dropped, the Pound may be sent higher versus its FX counterparts.
Thursday - 07/12/2018
The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts will be released at 12:30 GMT. Besides, at 13:30 GMT, the CPI m/m, and Core CPI m/m will be published. Consumer prices are gradually accelerating, with CPI approached to the 0.2% level in May and is forecasted to stay relatively the same this month. The same thing happens with the Core CPI. The data for June will show if core prices continue picking up or if we see a setback after the acceleration. Given the current very negative position of the US Dollar, a bright view on the CPI may help ease the impact on the Greenback.
Friday - 07/13/2018
There will be releases around the world including the Trade Balance of China (tentatively), which is forecasted to be 183B. At 08:15 GMT, the Federal Statistical Office of France will make public the PPI m/m with the current prediction of 0.2% for this June. Eight hours then, The Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment of the U.S will also be announced with a forecast at 98.3.