Weekly Trading Forecast (May 13 - May 19)

The most important news on this week’s financial market will come from the longtime developed economies of North America, England and the Kangaroo Land with the neighbor. This article will present our weekly trading forecast during the period from May 13 to May 19, targeting the prospect of major financial assets.

Monday – 05/14/2018

The Monday comes earliest to Japan, as the Prelim Machine Tool Orders will be released at 7:00 GMT and the PPI of this May is forecasted at 2.0% at 12:50 GMT. As that the USD - JPY exchange rate had been soaring for the last six weeks, the bullish trend is likely to continue this week.

Tuesday – 05/15/2018

The U.S authorities will proclaim the Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales of April at 13:30 GMT. While the Core Retail Sales is predicted at 0.5%, posting a considerable increase from last month’s 0.2%; the Retail Sales is forecasted to be 0.2% less from March’s 0.6%. Given the mixing news from the U.S, traders on the Greenback should be prudent and follow any new signs on this currency. In the same day on the Queen’s land, the Office for National Statistics will release the Average Earnings Index 3m/y at 9:30 GMT, which is anticipated to be 2,7% with a slight fall from last month’s. Half an hour then, the Parliament will release the Inflation Report Hearings. A positive view on the inflation from the report may help to improve the current condition of the GBP with the bearish trend in the last three weeks.

In Australia, the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will be published at 2:30 GMT. Any signs of a hawkish movement from the Reserve Bank of Australia will reverse the bearish trend of the AUD in the recent weeks.

Wednesday - 05/16/2018

At 2:30 GMT, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish the Wage Price Index q/q forecasted at 0.6%, printing no change from last quarter. In the U.S, the Census Bureau will announce the Building Permits at 13:30 GMT, which is much likely to be estimated from last month’s 1.35M. In addition, the weekly Crude Oil Inventories will also be released two hours then. In the afternoon at 13:00 GMT and 17:00 GMT, ECB President Draghi will deliver opening remark at an ECB event held in honor of V?tor Const?ncio in Frankfurt, while SNB Chairman Jordan will have an important speech about Sovereign Money Initiative in Zurich. All the mentioned news were relatively stable and is expected to have no significant affection on the related currencies.

Australian Bureau of Statistics
Source: Government News


Thursday - 05/17/2018

Thursday continues to witness many movements from the Australian and New Zealand. At 2:30 GMT, the monthly Employment Change and Unemployment Rate will be proclaimed. The Employment Change is forecasted at 20.3K, posting a huge jump from March’s 4.9K. In addition, the Unemployment Rate is estimated to have no change from the last month’s 5.5%. The consistent monetary policy and positive news from the industry will play important roles in the recovery of the AUD with the AUD/USD being in a three continuous bearish trend. In New Zealand, the Annual Budget will be released at 3:00 GMT. Any sign of a tight viewpoint on the budget will considerably affect the current bearish trend of the AUD/USD.

Friday - 05/18/2018

The Statistics Canada will provide the CPI and Core Retail Sales of April at 13:30 GMT. CPI and retail sales figures could further fuel such expectations for the rise of the Loonie should they refer to a strong economy. Inflation in Canada is experiencing a bullish trend in recent months and headed up to 2.3% in March, while retail sales index is still recovering from a plunge in late 2017. The investors will expect an optimistic scenario for a solid recovery as the Loonie – Greenback exchange rate was in a downtrend in the last month.
See also:
Weekly trading forecast October 15 - 19
Weekly trading forecast October 15 - 19
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