This week’s economic docket is relatively light with the US Dollar in focus. This article will present our preview on the economic docket during the period from Feb 12 to Feb 16, targeting the prospect of major financial assets.
Monday – 02/12/2018
The beginning of this week brings no high-profile economic announcements, therefore, the market is likely to remain calm. Most currency pairs will mostly follow technical guidance, making the chart analyzing job the main money making technique of traders.
Tuesday – 02/13/2018
Tuesday witnesses only UK’s CPI y/y come in at 10:30 GMT. The figure is forecasted to descend to 2.9% from its previous reading of 3.0%. Since concerns over Brexit ahead are pressurizing the British Pound’s prospect alongside the UK economy remaining lackluster, we suggest opening bearish positions on most of the GBP – cross pairs as the Cable will likely tumble versus major currencies given a worse-than-predicted report.
Wednesday - 02/14/2018
New Zealand’s Inflation Expectations q/q is going to be broadcast at 3:00 GMT this Wednesday. At the time of writing, there’s still no anticipation for the data, but we believe that inflation will still remain well below the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s expectations of 2.0%, paving the way for Kiwi bears to come into the fray.
At 14:30 GMT on the same day, there will be four U.S. significant economic releases printing. U.S. CPI m/m is expected to advance to 0.3% from the prior level of 0.1%, while Core CPI m/m is calculated to decline 0.2% compared to the previous reading of 0.3%. Meanwhile, economists foresee the Core Retail Sales m/m to fall to 0.2% from 0.4%, but Retail Sales m/m is estimated to ascend to 0.5% from its last number of 0.4%. Since the data expectations look so conflicting, the Greenback may see a wobble when the reports are published.
Thursday - 02/15/2018
Australia’s Employment Change and Unemployment Rate coming in at 1:30 GMT will spark off Thursday’s excitement. The Unemployment Rate is foreseen to remain at 5.5%, but analysts calculate that the Australian economy will merely add 15.2K jobs, 19.5K lower compared to the figure of December 2017. The Aussie is likely to trade lower versus its counterparts given analysts’ expectations are correct.
Apart from these, U.S. PPI m/m is going to be divulged at 14:30 GMT, estimated to increase to 0.4% from the negative data of -0.1%. The Greenback could be boosted by the release, and it means the Australian Dollar – Greenback exchange may descend strongly.
New Zealand’s Business NZ Manufacturing Index will also print at 22:30 GMT. We haven’t seen any forecasts for the release yet, hence, we remain neutral on the Kiwi.
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Phillip Lowe will have a speech at 23:30 GMT on the same day. Because he remains in no rush to move away from the easing cycle, there are minimal expectations for a hawkish rhetoric dropped in this meeting.
Friday - 02/16/2018
UK’s Retail Sales m/m will be published at 10:30 GMT by the end of this week. Economists expect the data to advance robustly to 0.6% from -1.5%, suggesting that the Pound Sterling is likely to head higher versus its G10 FX namesakes.
U.S. Building Permits will also be reported at 14:30 GMT, anticipated to mount to 1.31M from 1.30M. The US Dollar may be fuelled given a better-than-forecasted release.