Weekly News Review, July 3-7

Monday


Monday will actually be deprived of the American session. The reason is holidays. Canada celebrates the day of the country, and the US prepares for Independence Day by making the shortened day from 13:00. 02:50 – The Publication of data from Japan on the mood index of large industrial and non-manufacturing companies. In the data there is a positive dynamics, which gives good opportunities for trade in case of confirmation.

04:45 - Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of China.

11:00 - Index of business activity in Germany. A big change in the data is not expected, so the market reaction should be moderate.

The European session will end with Carney's direct speech at 15:00, which makes GBP a dangerous asset for this time.

Tuesday


04:30 – The biggest risk event during the Asia session is the RBA interest rate decision. Any change in the tone in regard to the monetary policy can be the catalysts for higher volatility in AUD/USD.

08:30 – The UK PMI Construction figures are the highlight of the London session. The market consensus is for a lower reading of only 55 versus 56 previous reading. The market reaction should be moderate as this has a medium impact on the GBP/USD exchange rate.

The US session will be closed for today due to the US 4th of July holiday so no major risk events are scheduled for the rest of the day.

Wednesday


1:45 – The Asia session will bring the Caixin China Services PMI, which is a proxy-risk event for mainly the Australian dollar. The market consensus is for a flat reading so no major impact on the currency exchange rate should be expected.

18:00 – The main risk event of the day is the FOMC minutes which will give traders further insights into the timing of the next Fed rate hikes. According to the Fed rate forecast, we should expect one more rate hike by the end of the year.

Thursday


1:30 – During the Asia session the Australia Trade Balance Figures are the main risk event. According to the market consensus the balance figures should tick higher to 1,100M versus 555M previous reading.

12:30 – The US Initial Jobless Claims are the main risk event during the NY session. The unemployment benefits are expected to come down from previous reading of 244k which should help push the dollar higher.

Friday


The G20 meeting will be one of the main risk events for the whole day as any headline reference to trade deals can impact the market positively or negatively.

8:30 – The London session will bring the Manufacturing Production figures followed by the Trade Balance numbers and the imports/exports for the month of May. The GBP crosses can be impacted on the news.

12:30 – The NY session will bring the Nonfarm Payrolls which, according to all forecasts should inch higher to 180k versus 138k previous reading. The unemployment rate is expected to stay flat at 4.3%, which again can be a positive sign for the greenback.
See also:
Weekly market overview November 12 - 16
Weekly market overview November 12 - 16
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