Main economic events on 26-30 of June

Monday, June 26

12:30 GMT - The US Durable Goods Orders decreased more than expected to -1.1% versus -0.6 forecasted. The US Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation also fell more than market expectation posting a reading of 0.1% versus 0.5% expected. The US dollar reacted negatively to the news and is trading near last week lows.

17:30 GMT - Mario Draghi speech at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking, in Portugal, was another news highlight of the day. During his speech, he reiterated the need for the ECB to reach its 2% inflation target.

22:45 GMT - The New Zeeland Trade Balance narrowed to $130M in May, down from $430M forecasted. Imports come higher than the expected $4.48B posting a reading of $4.85B while exports dropped from -$3.398B to -$3.750B.

Tuesday, June 27

11:00 GMT - Mario Draghi speech was the major news event of the day, which has been the catalyst for EUR/USD to rally to a 1-year high. The ECB president hinted at winding down the QE program. The current bond buying program stands at €2.3 trillion, which is set to run until the end of the year. Investors are now expecting the ECB to announce the QE tapering as soon as September meeting.

13:00 GMT - During the press conference about the Financial Stability Report, the BOE Governor Mark Carney has downplayed the interest rate speculation suggesting that the UK economy can’t handle higher interest rates.

Wednesday, June 28

13:30 GMT - The ECB President Mario Draghi, followed by the BOE Governor Mark Carney, BOJ Governor Kuroda and BOC Governor Poloz are scheduled to deliver speeches at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking, in Portugal. Any reference to the central bank’s monetary policy can be the catalyst for some volatility in the currency market.

Thursday, June 29

12:30 GMT – The first major risk event is the US Initial Jobless Claims are expected to inch down to 240k from 241K last reading. The unemployment benefits have been decreasing in the long-term signaling a healthy US labour market. The number of unemployed people who receive unemployment benefits is also expected to go down to 1.940M from 1.944M

At the same hour we have scheduled probably the most awaited news for the day: the US GDP for the first quarter is expected to come flat at 2.2%, while the annualized rate is expected to come in at 1.2%. The IMF has cut the US GDP forecast to 2.1%, down from 2.3% over concerns that the current White House administration can generate growth.

Friday, June 30

8:30 GMT – The day is starting with the UK GDP final figure for the first quarter is the biggest risk event of the day. Based on the market consensus we should expect a flat reading of 0.2% growth rate during the first quarter of the year. The annualized rate is expected to come at 2%.

12:30 GMT - We finish up the day and the week with the Canadian GDP is expected to inch lower in May to 0.2% down from 0.5%. The lower prices in the energy sector are the main driver of the economic slowdown expected. Traders should be paying closer attention to the CAD crosses.
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