Weekly Forex technical forecast July August 24 - 28


For the euro against the U.S. dollar, the upward trend is still dominant, but recent weeks have shown a tendency towards a sideways corridor with the boundaries of 1.1697 and 1.1900 points If you look at the price chart, you can see an attempt by the market to gain a foothold above the designated corridor, but this movement was immediately stopped by the price returning inside the range. At this point, the MACD-Histogram formed a small exit into a positive area, after which a strong downward movement can be traced. Thus, it is possible to consider variants of trading downwards, but only within the designated corridor. We also take into account that the work downwards will take place under conditions when the price will bounce back from the level of moving averages.



Last week, the British pound against the U.S. dollar made two attempts to consolidate above 1.3144. In the first case, it led to a reverse movement and the price returned inside the range, while in the second case, the fixation attempt is still forming. We note that in this case, all the indicators are looking up, confirming the possibility of growth. Thus, we can say that the next week can be followed up with trading options.



The dollar vs. the Japanese yen shows a market segment with quite high volatility and a short but trendy movement. Globally, we are talking about the dominance of a downtrend, but locally anything can happen to the market. One of the key factors to make a decision on this currency pair is the level of 105.170. Last week, the market tested this level from above and bounced. The indicators are looking up and the oscillator has recently tested the oversold level. As the price approaches this level, we can expect it to slide up again.



Upward trend is still relevant for this currency pair. This dynamic has been dominating for several months, but the last weeks allow drawing an additional trend line on at least three points. It is important that this trend line coincides with the histogram. If you look at the oscillator, it is close to neutral values and does not speak about any dynamics. An important feature of the current market stage is the fact that the price has recently tested the level of moving averages and the trend line. Moreover, it has tested it at the level where both levels coincided. Thus, we can expect a pullback and upward movement.

img AUD/USD parsing by moving averages, RSI and MACD



The global trend for this currency pair looks downward. The market is still falling, but we can draw different trend lines depending on the market segment. The area of decline is very well traced by oscillators that have been unable to rise above 60 for several months. Thus, we can only proceed from the basic postulate of technical analysis that we should trade in the direction of the trend. However, we can only trade downwards if the market falls below 1.3142.L




The key level for the dollar against the Swiss franc is 0.9061. Almost only this level gives some idea of how to trade this currency pair. If you look at the indicators, there are no trends, except that the histogram narrows to zero, which indicates a decrease in volatility and reduced scatter in price movements. However, this can be traced in the price chart as well. Now we can only say that the price has tested the designated level, after which a pullback has taken place, as a result of which the market absorbed the previous three candlesticks at once. This is a strong enough signal to trade up.



The dollar continues to show attempts to grow against the Russian ruble. Last week, these attempts became quite clear and obvious. It is quite easy to see, for example, by the oscillator, which for the first time in more than 2 weeks rose above 60. If you look at the histogram, it has been falling for a long time, and it was happening in the current market segment. If you take the last candle, marked on the chart, it is a growth candle on the histogram. Thus, there are all conditions to trade on the rise, waiting for the dollar to grow against the Russian ruble. 



Gold does not show clear trends, resting after previous outbreaks of volatility. If you look at the indicators, they all look up, but you cannot make any serious signals or conclusions based on this information. The level of 1942.945 is much more valuable. We can see that the price has literally stuck to this level, and the current situation in its stage coincides with the level of moving averages. It is dangerous to trade, because the market may need time to work on this level. On the other hand, we look at the indicator and expect growth, but we will only be able to trade when the price rises and gets fixed above the designated level. 

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