Next week’s spotlight of the world economy will surely be on the Trade War between the U.S and China, following by their latest policies and tariffs towards each other. This article will present our weekly trading forecast during the period from Jul 15 to Jul 21, targeting the prospect of major financial assets.
Monday – 07/16/2018
At 03:00 GMT, the National Bureau of Statistics of China will release the quarterly GDP, which was forecast to be 6.7%, a little bit lower than last quarter’s 6.8%. Given the current tight atmosphere of the recent trade tariffs, it is much likely that the CNY will be affected. It is then continued with the releases of monthly Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales in the U.S at 13:30 GMT, both of which are anticipated to be 0.4% _ much lower than the previous month’s indices (0,8% and 0,9% respectively). Later at 23:45 GMT, the Statistics New Zealand will publish the quarterly CPI, which is predicted to be the same as last quarter’s 0.5%. A stable CPI will help maintain the value of the Kiwi Dollar against other major currencies, especially the USD.
Tuesday – 07/17/2018
Early at 02:30 GMT, the Reserve Bank of Australia will make public the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. A few hours later at 09:00 GMT, the Bank Of England Governor Carney will have his speech due to testify, along with BOE Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe, on the Financial Stability Report before the Treasury Select Committee. It will then be followed by the release of the Average Earnings Index 3m/y, which is forecasted to be similar to last month’s 2.5%. At 15:00 GMT, Chairman Powell of FED will start the two-day testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington DC. People will much expect hints on the movements of FED in such a situation of a significant trade war with the U.S’s most important debtor, China.
Wednesday - 07/18/2018
The Office for National Statistics of England will announce the June’s CPI at 09:30 GMT, which is anticipated to be a bit higher than last month’s (2.6% compared with 2.4%). In the afternoon, from 13:30 to 15:30 GMT, the Census Bureau and the Energy Information Administration of America will publish the Building Permits and Crude Oil Inventories, with the Building Permits forecasted to be higher than last month’s (1.33M compared with 1.3M).
Thursday - 07/19/2018
Thursday witnessed many movements from Australia. At 02:30 GMT, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the June’s Employment Change and Unemployment Rate. While the Employment Change was positively forecasted to be 16.6K, which is much higher than last month’s 12K, the Unemployment Change is predicted to be stable at 5.4%. The Australian Dollar seems to have good affection from this announcement. Meanwhile, in the U.K, the Office for National Statistics will release the Retail Sales of June, which is anticipated at 0.2%, posting a considerable fall from last month’s 1.3%. The Pound is expected to have a negative next week, given the current bearish tendency of GBP/USD over the last trading days.
Friday - 07/20/2018
The spotlight of next Friday will be on the economy of America’s northern neighbor, Canada. At 13:30 GMT, the Statistics Canada will respectively publish their June’s CPI and Core Retail Sales. Both of which are witnessing the negative propensity in the recent periods, especially when the Core Retail Sales was much lower or equal to forecasts of the last five months. The CAD/USD had a slight rise this week thanks to the affections to the Greenback, and these releases may potentially equalize the negative affections on both currencies.