Weekly Trading Forecast (Jun 17 - Jun 23)

This week welcomes a series of speeches from Central Bankers around the world along with an average number of high-impact data releases. This article will present our weekly trading forecast during the period from Jun 17 to Jun 23, targeting the prospect of major financial assets.

Monday – 06/18/2018

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will spark off this week’s effervescence at 18:30 GMT on Monday. Despite inflation remaining below the 2% target, the ECB boss signaled for a withdrawal from stimulating era by the end of the year, suggesting that we will likely see more hawkish signs in this meeting. Traders should open bullish orders on the Euro-denominated assets given aggressive indication dropped.

Tuesday – 06/19/2018

Tuesday this week is for the Aussie and the US Dollar. Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will take place at 2:30 GMT, and it’s likely that RBA President Philip Lowe will endorse a wait-and-see approach for “a better Australian economy.” Selling the Aussie may be a wise choice after this meeting.

Philip Lowe
Source: Australian Financial Review

U.S. Building Permits will be confirmed on the same day at 13:30 GMT. Analysts forecast the figure to drop slightly to 1.35M from its last announcement of 1.36M, suggesting that the Greenback will suffer little impact from the report.

Wednesday - 06/20/2018

Wednesday will be full of speeches from central banks’ bosses (14:30 GMT), including the Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, and Reserve Bank of Australia, indicating a volatile atmosphere in all financial markets.

The Fed is planning to have four rate hikes this year, supported well by bright fundamental indicators. Given this speech delivering a more hawkish tone, the US Dollar may continue to be boosted against its G10 FX namesakes.

Meanwhile, the BOJ looked more and more dovish since it just downgraded the inflation outlook. In a scene where easy monetary policy is likely to be maintained, it’s relatively difficult for us to expect the Japanese Yen to trade higher versus its counterparts.

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories will come in at 15:30 GMT on the same day. No forecasts have been published yet, so we remain neutral on Oil prices.
The final item of interest on Wednesday will be the quarterly GDP report from New Zealand. The data is predicted to decrease to 0.5% from the prior 0.6%, suggesting that the Kiwi – currencies may slip.

Thursday - 06/21/2018

This Thursday will have the British Pound and Swiss Franc come into play thanks to the Bank of England’s and Swiss National Bank’s rate decisions. SNB Press Conference coming in at 9:30 GMT will likely end without fireworks as the CHF is rated as “overvalued” by Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan. The BOE is also anticipated to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.5% (at 12:00 GMT); however, the Sterling may respond much more negatively. We suggest looking for sell opportunities on the British Pound – currencies after the BOE’s rate decision. Also, traders should pay attention to President Mark Carney’s speech at 21:15 GMT as further bearish occasions may appear.

Friday - 06/22/2018

The end of this week brings OPEC meetings, and two high-profile economic data releases out of Canada. Both Canadian CPI and Core Retail Sale m/m have had no forecasts yet, we therefore remain neutral on the CAD’s development.
See also:
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