Weekly Trading Forecast (Jun 10 - Jun 16)

It will be very eventful next week with many policy meetings and governors’ speeches from the top-tier economies’ central banks. This article will present our weekly trading forecast during the period from Jun 10 to Jun 16, targeting the prospect of major financial assets.

Monday – 06/11/2018

The Monday morning will start with the announcement of April’s Manufacturing Production of the U.K at 09:30 GMT. The traders should be less worried about its negative tendency to know that this April’s one is predicted to be 0.3%, which is much higher than the previous month’s -0.1%.

Tuesday – 06/12/2018

Continued from the Manufacturing Production on Monday, at 09:30 GMT, the Office for National Statistics of England will pronounce the Average Earnings Index of April. Unlike the above index, this one is forecasted to be a little bit lower from last month’s (2.5% in compared to 2.6%). Four hours then, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S will publish the May’s CPI and Core CPI. Both of them are forecasted to be stable from last month (0.2% and 0.1% separately).

Office for National Statistics of England
Source: Black History Month

Wednesday - 06/13/2018

Early at 03:00 GMT, RBA Governor Lowe will deliver a speech titled "Productivity, Wages, and Prosperity" at an Australian Industry Group event, in Melbourne. Should any hawkish implications as to monetary policy be dropped, the Australian Dollar may be sent higher versus its FX counterparts. Meanwhile, at 09:30 GMT, the U.K’s CPI of May will be published and is predicted to be stable from last month’s 2.4%.

The afternoon of Wednesday will belong to the U.S with the PPI of May released and the happenings from FOMC meetings at 19:00 GMT. The PPI’s forecast shows a rising propensity in prices with a considerable rise from last month’s (0.3% in compared to 0.1%). Meanwhile, the traders will have attention to the FOMC Economic Projections and statements to see whether there is any hint on a rate hike, given that the Fed has already pre-announced the interest paid on reserves will no longer be at the top end of the range. At the same time, the Federal Funds Rate will be published and is predicted to be 0.25% higher from last time’s 1.75%, which will also be considered carefully along with other meetings’ news.

Thursday - 06/14/2018

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will announce the Employment Change and Unemployment Rate. While the Unemployment Rate is forecasted to be stable at 5.6%, the change in employment is forecasted lower than last month’s 22.6K (19.2K). At 09:30 GMT, the Retail Sales of May in the U.K will be published and is anticipated to be much lower from last month’s (0.5% in compared to 1.6%). Given the conflicting releases, the Great Britain Pound is much likely to seesaw next week.

At 12:45 GMT, the Main Refinancing Rate of ECB will be published and is predicted to be similar from last month’s 0.00%. After that, there will be a press conference to answer questions from the journalists and financial experts.

At the same time, the May’s Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales of the U.S will be released with both indices are forecasted to have no negative change from last month’s. The positive mentioned news may give the Greenback a good preparation for a firm rise in value against other major currencies next week.

Friday - 06/15/2018

The Bank of Japan will tentatively have many activities on Friday, including the announcement of BOJ Policy Rate (predicted to be stable at -0.1%), Monetary Policy Statement and also a Press Conference after the statement being published. The current fluctuating tendency of the USD/JPY is much likely to be affected when all the information of the statement is made public.
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