Next week, the central banks from top-tier economies will have many important statements and speeches, which are coming along with the new industry indices being released. This article will present our weekly trading forecast during the period from Jun 03 to Jun 09, targeting the prospect of major financial assets.
Monday – 06/04/2018
Early at 02:30 GMT, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the Retail Sales of April, which is predicted to be 0.3% - only half of the previous month’s number. Six hours then, the Construction PMI in May of the U.K will also be published with a similar downward forecast. It is predicted to be 52.0, posting a modest decline from last month’s 52.5. Such a considerable change will not affect the Pound seriously, especially when the GBP/USD exchange rate is recovering strongly in the last three trading days.
Tuesday – 06/05/2018
At 05:30 GMT, the Reserve Bank of Australia will make the Rate Statement and the Cash Rate public, with the Cash Rate being predicted to be stable at 1.5%. In England, the Services PMI will be announced and is forecasted to be 52.9, posting a modest rise from last month’s number. Given the mixed affair, traders will have to consider if the affection of the Construction PMI or the Services PMI on the Pound is harder. In Frankfurt, the ECB President Draghi will deliver his speech in a panel discussion titled "Two Presidents' Talk" at the ECB's 20th-anniversary event at 14:00 GMT. In the West, far over the Atlantic, the Institute for Supply Management of the U.S will release the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 GMT, which is forecasted to rise slightly to 57.9 from last month’s 56.8. The USD value will positively take advantage of this index.
Wednesday - 06/06/2018
In Australia, the Bureau of Statistics will issue the quarterly GDP at 02:30 GMT. Experts predict that there will be a huge increase in the GDP this quarter (0.8%, which is doubled the last quarter’s GDP), given the current bright prospects from the economy. At 13:30 GMT, the Statistics Canada will announce the Trade Balance of April. Traders are expecting a change in the recent downtrend of the country’s Trade Balance in the last two months. Going down to the South, at 15:30 GMT, the Energy Information Administration of the U.S will publish the weekly Crude Oil Inventories as usual.
Thursday - 06/07/2018
It is another day starts early with Australia, when the Bureau of Statistics of this country will release the Trade Balance at 02:30 GMT, which is forecasted to be 1.03B. Unlike another top economy _ Canada, Australia is having a great time with the Export–Import relation when the Trade Balance surpluses since January. Such a positive new will much likely fortify the potential recovery of the AUD/USD exchange rate this week. In Canada, the Bank of Canada Governor Poloz will speak at a press conference about the Financial System Review at 16:15 GMT in Ottawa. Any sign of a positive application on the monetary policy will considerably change the current bullish situation of the CAD/USD.
Friday - 06/08/2018
At 13:30 GMT, the Statistics Canada will simultaneously publish the Employment Change and Unemployment Rate of May. While the Unemployment Rate is surprisingly stable from the beginning of 2018 at about 5.8%, the Employment Change of Canada is much more complicated. The actual numbers have been very far from the predictions since the last months of 2017, with three of the last four recent months had the negative change while the forecasts were all positive. The CAD value will benefit should the Employment Change this May shows a development in the labor market.