Weekly Trading Forecast (May 20 - May 26)

This week’s spotlight of the world economy will be on the UK and the U.S, followed by the important release on monetary policies and industrial indices reports. This article will present our weekly trading forecast during the period from May 20 to May 26, targeting the prospect of major financial assets.

Monday – 05/21/2018

The OPEC- Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) Meetings will tentatively take place at the opening of the week with important discussions on the oil sector. As a result, traders of the most used currency in oil trading - the USD, will expect positive news from the meeting. Later in the afternoon, FOMC Member Bostic will speak about the economic outlook and price-level targeting at the Atlanta Economics Club at 16:30 GMT.

Tuesday – 05/22/2018

At 10:00 GMT, there will be an Inflation Report Hearings at the U.K’s Parliament. As the BOE Governor and MPC members will testify on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament's Treasury Committee, it is much likely that the view of a stable monetary policy will remain, given that the bank rate unchanged and the Monetary Policy Committee recently voted on a hold-rate decision.

Monetary Policy Committee
Source: Flickr


Wednesday - 05/23/2018

From the U.S, the Crude Oil Inventories and the most important event for global financial markets next week - FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released separately at 15:30 GMT and about three hours then. FOMC stated that the inflation target is symmetric and there were decisions on tolerance towards inflation higher than the target. In England, the Office for National Statistics will pronounce the April’s CPI at 9:30 GMT, while the RBA Governor Lowe will speak about China's economy, financial system, and the implications for Australia at the Australia-China Relations Institute in Sydney at 9:00 GMT. Any sign of a positive application on the country’s policy will considerably improve the current bearish situation of the AUD/USD.

Thursday - 05/24/2018

Thursday continues to witness many movements from the Old Continent. At 9:00 GMT, BOE Governor Carney will have his speech at BOE's Markets Forum in London and tentatively, he might have another speech at the Society of Professional Economists' annual dinner later. Half an hour then, the Office for National Statistics will release the U.K’s Retail Sales in April, which is confronting continuous falls in recent months. At 12:30 GMT, the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting will take place. As the suppliers keep increasing oil prices, the ECB could face short-term pressure to consider a suitable policy due to inflationary trends in Europe. Given that the USD keeps surging recently, the EUR/USD exchange rate may face the scenario of a bearish trend in near future.

Friday - 05/25/2018

The Office for National Statistics of the U.K will publish the Second Estimate GDP at 9:30 GMT, while BOE Governor Carney will have another speech in a panel discussion titled "The future of central banking" at the Sveriges Riksbank Anniversary Conference in Stockholm five hours then. A positive view of Mr. Carney’s statement may help to improve the current condition of the GBP with the bearish trend in the last three weeks. On the other side of the Atlantic, at 13:30 GMT, the Census Bureau will announce the monthly Core Durable Goods Orders. Besides, Fed Chair Powell will also join Mr. Carney in the above-mentioned conference in Stockholm in a speech of the U.S’s view on the position and role of central banking in the future market. Given the bullish trend of the USD against other major currencies recently, Mr. Powell’s view is expected to be stable and much likely to have no significant affection on the current condition.
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