Weekly Trading Forecast (Apr 29 - May 05)

This week’s economic docket is dense, with the Fed’s interest rate decision and U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change report heavily in focus. This article will present our weekly trading forecast during the period from Apr 29 to May 05, targeting the prospect of major financial assets.

Monday – 04/30/2018

Volatility likely comes from earlier this week since Monday has the ANZ Business Confidence data in play (2:00 GMT). There are no forecasts for it yet, so we remain neutral on the New Zealand Dollar’s development.

Tuesday – 05/01/2018

Tuesday brings UK Manufacturing PMI at 9:30 GMT. Economists expect the figure to decrease to 54.9 from its previous release of 55.1, likely aggravating the Cable’s ongoing bearish momentum.

Canadian GDP m/m is coming in at 13:30 GMT on the same day, calculated to advance to 0.3% from the March level of -0.1%. The Loonie may be stimulated given a better-than-predicted outcome.

At 15:00 GMT, we get U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI. The data is anticipated to decline to 58.6 compared to its prior reading of 59.3.

Tuesday also witnesses Bank Of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz speak in Yellowknife on Household Debt at 19:30 GMT. Any positive indicators plus a hawkish rhetoric may boost bets for another BoC rate-hike in 2018 and drive the Canadian Dollar higher versus its counterparts.

Stephen Poloz
Source: CTV News

The last item of interest on May 1 comes from New Zealand. First-quarter Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data will both be released at 23:45 GMT. The first one is expected to increase to 0.6% from the fourth quarter 2017’s 0.5% result, while the remainder is anticipated to print at 4.5%, unchanged from the prior period. Kiwi bulls may show up in earnest given positive outcomes.

Wednesday - 05/02/2018

Wednesday’s excitement is kicked off by UK Construction PMI (9:30 GMT). A strong ascent in data has been forecasted, likely helping the British Pound gain ground against its namesakes.

U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will be broadcast at 13:15 GMT. Analysts estimate the figure to be 194K versus its previous 241K. We suggest trading the US Dollar carefully as the forecast goes against the USD’s currently strong bullish momentum.
Crude Oil Inventories will come in at 15:30 on the same day. There are no expectations for the data yet, so we remain neutral on Oil prices’ development.

19:00 GMT is the time for the Fed’s rate decision. Economists expect borrowing costs to be left unchanged at 1.75% despite the recent hawkish tone from the Fed’s officials. USD bears may enter into the fray, so we suggest that traders should be cautious when entering bullish orders on the Greenback.

Thursday - 05/03/2018

Australian Trade Balance announced at 2:30 GMT is the first high-profile item of Thursday. A positive prediction has been published: the data is expected to be 0.95B against its March level of 0.83B. The Aussie may post a temporary recovery versus major currencies on the release.
UK Services PMI will be affirmed at 9:30 GMT, calculated to increase to 53.3 from 51.7. The Cable may be sent higher if the actual information is better-than-expected.

At 13:30 GMT, Canadian Trade Balance will come in. No forecasts for the data have been made yet.
U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is printing at 15:00 GMT on the same day. The data is foreseen to drop to 58.1 from its previous reading of 58.8, which may hit the US Dollar.

Friday - 05/04/2018

The end of this week brings a basket of high-profile economic data releases out of the US. Average Hourly Earnings m/m is forecasted to drop to 0.2% versus the prior 0.3%, while Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to be 185K, 82K higher compared to its past reading (103K). U.S. Unemployment Rate is anticipated to decline to a record low of 4.0%. From a broader perspective, we expect the Greenback to react positively to the reports.
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