In this article, we would like to present the weekly technical forecast targeting the prospects of major financial assets during the period from Mar 05 to Mar 09.
This week was another negative affair for the Euro – Greenback exchange with prices testing the last swing low of 1.22052 (Feb 09 nadir) after breaking below the 50-day SMA. Nevertheless, Thursday’s bounce suggested that bulls are back in play, supported by Friday’s action. Therefore, a bullish trade for the foreseeable future is totally possible with the nearest resistance threshold determined at 1.25350 (Jan 25 peak). Alternatively, a daily close below 1.22052 targets the next support obstacle around 1.20859 (Jan 04 high).
The British Pound – US Dollar also headed lower this week but to a more serious degree as it has turned below the 1.37902 significant level, creating a complete double-top formation. Bearish momentum looked pretty energetic since Wednesday’s candle was a full-body bearish one followed by weak rallies on Thursday and Friday, indicating for a further descent next week. The nearest substantial support zone is around 1.35386 – 1.36087. Otherwise, a turn back above 1.37902 with strong signs may pave the way for a retest of the Jan 25 high at 1.43415.
The US Dollar – Japanese Yen marked a pessimistic week with the 105.538 support hurdle tested back. Nonetheless, signs of a rally have been trickling out, suggesting that we may see an approach of the 20-day EMA in near-term. A turn back above both the EMA 20 and the significant level at 107.304 on a daily closing basis exposes the 108.289 level support-turned-resistance. Alternatively, piercing below 107.304 will open the door for new weekly lows.
The Greenback – Canadian Dollar showed lots of remarkably bullish movements this week with the steadfast barrier around 1.29143 re-challenged. However, we witness many signs of profit taking, suggesting that this surge is likely to end unhappily in the near future. A bearish trade to test back the EMA 20 is entirely possible next week, with a break below that making the 1.26695 important threshold on the radar. Alternatively, a penetration above 1.29143 will materialize prices’ bottoming efforts, paving the ways for new highs in mid-term.
This week witnessed the Aussie – Greenback trade lower and re-confront the Feb 09 base at 0.77572; howbeit, prices remained unsuccessful in overpowering that level. With Thursday’s and Friday’s buying signs, we may see a higher correction to test back the 20-day EMA for the foreseeable future. A daily close above the EMA 20 – SMA 50 territory targets the Feb 16 peak of 0.79866. On the contrary, the next support hurdle is ascertained around 0.76486 given AUD/USD trading below 0.77572.
The Kiwi – US Dollar’s development during the current week was quite negative; however, prices rebounding from the Feb 08 nadir (0.71737) on Thursday is considered a sign of a rally in the near future. Now, the currency pair is sandwiched between 0.71737 and the EMA 20 – SMA 50 area. Given a break above that area with vigorous bullish momentum, prices may trade higher to retest the Jan 24 high at 0.74327. Alternatively, a penetration below the Feb 08 base opens the door for further weekly decreases.